abrdn: Developed countries are quick to judge developing economies
This is a commentary by Eva Cairns, Head of Climate Change Strategy, and Jeremy Lawson, Chief Economist. both working at abrdn, on COP26:
In our view, COP26 has delivered enhanced ambition across a number of areas and is consistent with our view that the zero carbon energy transition is going to shape the next decade and beyond. Unfortunately, the credibility gap between the pledges governments have made to hold temperature increases to 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels or even 2 degrees, and the actions they are taking remains too large.
The good news is that the Glasgow Climate Pact anchored 1.5C as the global climate target with positive commitments made around deforestation, methane and the Glasgow Breakthrough agenda, which focuses on provision of clean technologies.
For the first time, there was also a specific reference to phasing down coal and inefficient fossil fuel subsidies – despite the wording being softened at the last minute to the disappointment of many stakeholders. The private finance sector demonstrated a strong willingness to play their part in financing the transition to net zero with 450 actors joining GFANZ. And it was encouraging to see the intent of collaboration between the world’s largest emitters, the US and China.
However, COP26 has not delivered on strengthening credible actions to keep the 1.5C goal alive. The side agreements made at the meetings are not legally binding and we are doubtful will be transposed into concrete national legislative changes. Critically, countries’ aggregate Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) would still take us to a 2.4C world. Another major failure of COP was to address the imbalance of responsibility and action between the developed and developing world. The provision of promised climate finance to the developing world and support for loss and damage was not delivered and a major disappointment.
Developed countries are quick to judge developing economies that soften the language of commitments as they tread the delicate balance between reducing the carbon intensity of their economies and sustaining the growth needed to raise living standards. But their moral outrage would be justified if they were transitioning more quickly themselves and doing much more to support the global South, for whom the cost of abatement and the physical impacts of climate change are often highest.
In summary, COP26 sent a strong signal that there are positive changes taking place across public and private actors to drive decarbonisation, but the pace is simply not sufficient to limit warming to 1.5C. One ray of hope is the agreed change to the ratcheting mechanism to update NDCs: This is now requested by the end of 2022 rather than the original 5 year update mechanism. The success of Glasgow can only really be judged once we see how many countries will put promises into credible, legally binding actions and rapidly reverse the current trend of rising emissions. Until then, the Paris goals will remain on life support.