La Française: COP27… “alone, I go faster, together, we go further”

Nov 30, 2022

Going into COP27, one of the objectives was to raise and strengthen 2030 climate ambitions. We are sorry to observe that only twenty-nine nations did so. The Mitigation Work Programme, whose goal is to “keep alive” a 1.5°Celcius limit on Global warming, is working under pressure. The expiration date could be crossed as soon as 2026. Hence, simply put, what happens thereafter? The question is yet to be addressed. No strengthening of the global action to phase-out coal was put forward.

A USD20bn financing commitment was however made to Indonesia, the first global exporter of coal and third largest consumer, to fund its just transition, reducing its reliance on coal, and consequently lowering its peak power emissions in 2030 and putting them back on track to Net Zero by 2050.

Fortunately, COP27 was extended by almost two days to reach an agreement on Loss and Damage, the permanent loss or repairable damage caused by climate change. Here again, actual progress fell short of expectations. The decision was made to provide a “Loss and Damage” fund for vulnerable countries but no decision concerning actual funding was achieved. Additionally, the definition of eligible countries remains vague: “developing countries that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change”.

Adaptation was also high on the agenda, especially given the geographic location of the hosting country, Egypt. Hence, while discussions ran rampant, there was no actual progress on the COP26 target “to at least double” adaptation funding. The “Global Goal on Adaptation” committee did however agree on a framework of issues to cover in four workshops and is expected to report back next year.

Climate Finance by developed countries fell short of the USD100 billion a year objective, again! In parallel, the “new collective quantified goal on climate finance” (NCQG) is making slow progress (decision expected by 2024). COP27 addressed a key issue in Climate Finance, being the source and form of instruments. It was suggested that grants, as opposed to loans, be privileged to avoid excess debt by developing countries, determined to address their structural vulnerabilities.

It should be underlined that progress was made with the Santiago Network for Loss and Damage (technical assistance to developing countries vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change), from an operational and practical standpoint. The governance structure was defined, and funds (in addition to donations) will be allocated to support its set-up.

Talks concerning Article 6 of the Paris Agreement (which allows countries to cooperate to achieve emission reductions targets, i.e., exchange carbon credits) made headway but the key question surrounding the eligibility of “emissions avoidance” as carbon credits has been postponed to next year.

Multilateral cooperation, a key concern leading up to COP27 has not been fully resolved. There is a clear fracture between “developed” and “developing” countries due to their stale definition (definition dating back to 1992) and the implied designation of who is to pay and who is to benefit. China seems to be at the heart of this divide, as highlighted by the EU proposition to pay into the Loss and Damage fund on the precondition that China contributes also. On this front, climate discussions between the US and China have apparently resumed (Joe Biden and Xi Jinping agreed at the G20 Summit to continue cooperating on climate change while their special envoys at COP27 met behind closed doors), inspiring hope.

On a more positive note, we witnessed a flurry of new initiatives and partnerships. Hereafter a non-exhaustive list of the most remarkable:

• the Global Shield against Climate Risks, launched by the V20 and the G7;
• the Bridgetown Initiative by Barbadian Prime Minister Mia Mottley;
• Brazil, Congo and Indonesia, homes to the largest rainforests, launched a partnership to protect their forests and fight deforestation;
• a group of African leaders launched the Africa Carbon Markets Initiative to generate 300 million credits and USD6 billion of revenue annually by 2030;
• the ENACT (Enhancing Nature-based Solutions for an Accelerated Climate Transformation) initiative, launched to coordinate global efforts to address climate change, land and ecosystem degradation and biodiversity loss through Nature-based Solutions (NbS);
• the Global Methane Pledge launched two new initiatives to drive methane reduction in agriculture and waste sectors (the number of signatories has reached 150, 50 of which have methane action plans in place or in the process of development).

The maxim “alone, I go faster, together, we go further” is taking on a whole meaning. More than ever, it has become apparent that time is pressing. We cannot wait for revolutionary multilateral progress. Countries and their populations need to take urgent action individually. Thereafter, collectively, we can overcome political hurdles.